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Saudi backed Hariri aims to marginalize Aoun and Lebanon's Christians yet again

Labib Chemali

In the latest round of negotiations to form Lebanon's cabinet, things have continued to take an even uglier turn. Lead by Saadedine Hariri of the Future Movement, the March 14 coalition and their relative parliamentary majority was dealt a body blow weeks ago with the defection of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, leaving members of the March 14 coalition at each other's throats in order to secure a bigger share of ministers for themselves.
To deflect attention from their unenviable position, the March 14 camp ramped up their vicious campaign of misinformation and leaving the problem on cabinet formation at the feet of MP Michel Aoun and rejecting that reformist Telecommunications Minister Gibran Bassil return as minister. It seems that Bassil's performance the last 12 months as Telecommunications Minister has upset Hariri's camp as he was able to reduce phone subscription costs and call rates for the consumer and while increasing income into the Government Treasury from Lebanon's lucrative Telecommunications sector.
Such reforms are highlighting the corruption that has been institutionalised since the Future Movement former leader, then five time Prime Minister Rafic Hariri (Saadedine’s father) came to power in 1992. Since then Lebanon has fallen into $50 billion USD of public debt with not much to show for it.
The Hariris came to power in Lebanon on the back of a Saudi brokered agreement known as the Taef agreement in 1990; that strengthened the position of Prime Minister (held by a Sunni Muslim) at the expense of the Presidency (held by a Maronite Catholic) and was implemented militarily by Syria and Lebanese Militias (currently represented in the March 14 coalition) under the auspices of the United States who at the time needed Arab support for the first Gulf War.
In 2005, the Future Movement reversed its position on Syria’s occupation of Lebanon, rode the wave of anti Syrian sentiment despite clinging to a gerrymandered law introduced by the Syrians, aimed at the marginalisation of the Christians and managed to hold onto power. They allied with the Amal and Hizballa Parties (whom they accuse of being Pro Syrian) to get across on the back of Shiyite votes before turning on them too. This move was aimed at sidelining Michel Aoun, who was returning from his 15 year exile after the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon( an exile that started when the Hariri family came to power). Aoun won 70% of the Christian votes and held a 21 seat bloc in Parliament.
The 2009 parliamentary elections saw the Saudis and the US take an active role both financially and logistically to keep the Future Movement afloat and helped it scrape through a majority at the expense of democracy; Aoun rebounded and increased the share of his Change and Reform Bloc to 27 Mp’s rendering it the largest Christian bloc in Parliament and second largest bloc overall.
The defection of Jumblatt has left Hariri without a parliamentary majority and after returning from a European holiday with his family while the country is without a government and later a trip to Saudi Arabia, he has resumed his designation to form a cabinet. It seems however, that all eyes are on Aoun and how many ministries they can cheat the Free Patriotic Movement (Aoun’s party) out of in the next “National Unity Government”.
The leader of Lebanon’s Christians, with a Secular platform that draws popularity from all of Lebanon’s religious communities; Aoun’s presence on the Lebanese scene since the late 80’s as a defender of Lebanon’s Sovereignty and his drive for Change and Reform is seen as a threat by Lebanon’s ruling elite, or if you were to ask someone on the street, “Lebanon’s Mafiocrasy”.
There is little reason to see why he would draw the ire of the Future Movement and what is left of the March 14 coalition.
Despite purported links with Al Qaeda affiliated extremist Sunni groups, the Saudi backed Future Movement of Prime Minister Designate Saadedine Hariri is perceived as pro Western as they do not actively oppose the naturalization and permanent settlement of the half million plus Palestinian refugees in Lebanon at the expense of the Lebanese indigenous population. Such a move would be seen to serve Israel as it is absolved of the responsibility of the refugees that resulted from its creation (and in contravention of United Nations Security Council Resolution 194); Saudi Arabia would also see benefits as such a move would tilt Lebanon's delicate demographic balance of 3.5 million people in favor of the Sunni sect since the Palestinian refugees are primarily Sunni Muslim.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are the United State's major allies in the Middle East.


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